The headlines are out again and no doubt the press will be full of the joys of optimism (not), they will be claiming that an 8.9% reduction in new car registrations, second worst September since 1999, is proof we're on the verge of a double dip recession...I guess it sells papers in the short term. Perhaps if they were more optimistic in their headlines people would go out spending again. At the moment we're all too petrified to spend anything as we keep getting told the black hole of a DDR is just around the corner.
Anyone reading past the headlines will see that the figures for the whole of 2010 should still be up on 2009. We're also not comparing like for like, apples with apples. Last years figures had the enormous help of the scrappage scheme and without researching the fact I think it is a pretty safe bet the the majority of the cars sold under the scrappage scheme were at the lower end of the market for value. This is probably reflected in the fact that the premium manufacturers figures are nowhere near as bad as the headline figure.
So instead of worrying about this 8.9% reduction in volume can we be more optimistic....what was the actual figure in Value???
Also contributing to these figures must be the long lead times currently being quoted by manufacturers, I know if I was looking for a new car at the moment and I was quoted 3-4 months lead time I would look at the alternatives and this would include a used car 6 months to a year old. You only need 1 in twenty potential buyers to take this route and you have a massive impact made on the figures.
You can probably gather from my blogs I'm neither a professor of English nor am I in anyway an economist...just someone in the real world fed up with all the doom and gloom, who is trying to be optimistic about the future.
The one thing for sure that neither the scrappage scheme or the reduced volume helps is the used car market. Scrappage took a lot of roadworthy cars out of the market altogether, this reduced volume is now doing the same. Meaning dealers have to box clever when looking at ways to buy used cars to retail. Alternatives are available, part exchange car volumes are reducing so dealers are having to rely more and more on trade contacts, auctions, car buying sites. A great new tool for Dealers, traders and Buyers to use is www.cararena.co.uk, they have a great supply of cars that you can buy directly from members of the public and other traders.
I guess all I am saying if we all look on the bright side, glass half full, side of life and start spending a little bit more than perhaps things will start to look better a lot quicker than if we all mope about in our cloudy little world staring into our half empty glasses.